Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 34.647275 37.511896 40.667829 44.435811 48.857517 53.941044 60.317548
2025-09-07 29.993499 33.640361 37.927737 43.447568 50.537592 59.607231 72.591351
2025-09-14 27.253519 31.217567 36.066445 42.619007 51.570142 63.952371 83.670318
2025-09-21 24.793967 28.776406 33.771963 40.740423 50.667968 65.194612 90.311635
2025-09-28 23.449891 27.570170 32.869482 40.504562 51.873528 69.571285 103.291043
2025-10-05 23.276575 27.821940 33.860523 42.944546 57.328341 81.854955 136.552905
2025-10-12 22.167868 26.729248 32.895214 42.393698 57.970220 86.029316 155.517493
2025-10-19 21.479777 26.147447 32.578720 42.753274 60.127142 93.568312 188.701641
2025-10-26 21.175372 26.062364 32.947693 44.192788 64.379043 106.752836 254.953026
2025-11-02 20.575962 25.517257 32.587773 44.398922 66.392278 115.771708 323.767626
2025-11-09 19.588085 24.363700 31.238578 42.825768 64.722660 115.284657 347.408862
2025-11-16 18.655883 23.250913 29.893278 41.157578 62.663773 113.320151 361.387722
2025-11-23 18.317055 23.094758 30.169303 42.609574 67.885110 135.493401 688.166178
2025-11-30 17.442416 22.118006 29.124687 41.674747 68.021900 143.764823 1083.180923
2025-12-07 16.699586 21.287180 28.238205 40.904706 68.342132 153.173330 2124.840849
2025-12-14 15.830208 20.219861 26.899501 39.153833 66.031544 151.673021 3085.919928
2025-12-21 15.337415 19.695645 26.403327 38.933727 67.368335 166.088204 885978.212699
2025-12-28 15.345276 19.930009 27.159493 41.207647 75.647601 224.362555 NaN
2026-01-04 14.863146 19.377640 26.555311 40.694889 76.339258 244.485421 NaN
2026-01-11 14.558118 19.086708 26.375049 41.029641 79.589662 290.626189 NaN
2026-01-18 14.429506 19.065837 26.655737 42.368296 86.422025 398.043583 NaN
2026-01-25 14.136271 18.765627 26.422371 42.559795 89.676283 494.655836 NaN
2026-02-01 13.625249 18.093422 25.489151 41.097111 86.806698 485.985239 NaN